Next Blast of Arctic Air & Watching the Coast Midweek

Next Shot of Arctic Air Arrives Monday Afternoon
Next arctic front arrives Monday afternoon and the cold weather will last through much of the work week.

After a brief moderation in temperatures this weekend, the next arctic front will blast through the DC Region on Monday afternoon ushering in below zero wind chills and highs once again struggling to get out of the teens and low temperatures near zero.  The cold air will begin to moderate through the later portion of the work week but temperatures will still remain slightly below normal through the upcoming Super Bowl weekend.

Here are the latest Preliminary Snowfall totals so far this winter at the three major Washington Region Airports:

Reagan National Airport (DCA):  7.2″

Washington Dulles Int. Airport (IAD):  16.5″

Baltimore – Washington Int. Airport (BWI):  12.2″

Watching the Southeast Coastline on Wednesday:

GFS Ensembles agree that a storm system will develop off of the Carolina coastline on Tuesday & Wednesday.
GFS Ensembles agree that a storm system will develop off of the Carolina coastline on Tuesday.

I am interested in a developing area of low pressure off of the southeast coastline on Tuesday and Wednesday of the upcoming work week.  Earlier runs of the European Forecast Model hinted that the track of this system may come close enough to the coast to possibly affect the Mid-Atlantic.  **I was honestly quite alarmed at the lack of warning we had on the models with the last snow event as we really only had about 36 hours of warning before it struck.**

GFS Ensembles
GFS Ensembles show 15 different placements of an area of low pressure (red numbers off of the North Carolina coastline) during the same time frame during the middle portion of the upcoming work week.

Bottom Line:  This coastal storm may produce snow in the Carolinas and then move out to sea without any fanfare across the Washington Area.  Or, this system may end up tracking closer to the coast producing accumulating snow across our area.  Due to the lack of warning with the last system, I will be closely watching the forecast models for any signs of a shift in track to the west.

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