Tim’s 2021- 2022 DC Winter Forecast

November begins tomorrow, the fall foliage is nearing peak and I can’t think of a better time to release my official 2021 – 2022 DC Winter Forecast.

Weak La Nina Conditions are Forecast to Prevail through the Upcoming Winter 

The blue colors off of the western coast of South America continuing westward along the equatorial Pacific represent cooler than average sea surface temperatures characteristic of La Nina conditions.  The forecast models (image below) continue to indicate that weak La Nina conditions should continue through  February 2022.

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Tim’s 2017-2018 Washington DC Area Winter Forecast

For Tim’s 2018-2019 Washington DC Area Winter Forecast, click here

After a very active Hurricane Season and one of the warmest and driest October’s on record what can we expect this upcoming Winter across the National Capital Region?

For potential clues, I pulled past weak La Nina Winter seasons (12 analog years) and looked at temperature and precipitation anomalies that followed during November through March.  The image above shows a blend of global temperature anomalies from twelve previous October’s when weak La Nina conditions were developing across the Equatorial Pacific.  Notice the warmer than average temperatures in October stretching across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

Continue reading “Tim’s 2017-2018 Washington DC Area Winter Forecast”