Uncertainty Swirls Around Hurricane Matthew’s Eventual Track

The current GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) model tracks Hurricane Matthew much further offshore and pulls the cyclone off to the north at a faster rate of forward speed than the European Forecast Model.   The European Forecast Model Ensemble (image below) shows a lot more uncertainty as to whether the storm hits Florida, the Mid-Atlantic or heads…

Update on Tropical Storm Matthew

The latest forecast models track what is now Tropical Storm Matthew into the Caribbean Sea and the begin to turn him toward the north following an eerily similar path of what Hurricane Hazel did back in 1954. Hurricane Hazel Track (1954): Latest Forecast Models: Global Ensemble Forecast System shows Matthew re-emerging into the Atlantic Ocean…

Timing Today’s Heavy Rainfall

The image above (courtesy TropicalTidbits.com) shows numerous showers with embedded periods of heavier rainfall continuing to stream in off of the Atlantic through 7pm this evening. The following image shows how much additional rainfall is expected through 7pm: Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day on Saturday (hopefully less numerous than today…

How Much Rain has fallen in your neighborhood so far?

The following images from (Wunderground.com) are doppler radar estimates of how much rain has fallen across our region so far: Metro: Southern Suburbs of Northern Virginia:  Fairfax, Prince William, Stafford, King George and Fredericksburg: Southern Maryland: Charles, Calvert and St Mary’s counties  

Update on Flash Flooding Probability

Waves of torrential rainfall will move northward out of central Virginia impacting the entire Washington Region through the day on Thursday.  With the ground being so hard from a lack of rain, water will easily run off into streams, creeks, low-lying areas, poor drainage areas (underpasses) etc.  Here is a look at the latest full…

5AM Wednesday Update: High Resolution Models Dropping Incredible Amounts of Rain

Scattered Strong Thunderstorms have already begun to break out across our Southern suburbs and exurban areas like Stafford county early this morning. Lightning is already showing up as instability is increasing with tropical air beginning to over-ride the relatively cooler air mass at the surface.  Humidity will increase rapidly today as thunderstorms become numerous this…