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*Violent Storms Will Impact the Washington Region this Evening*

June 29, 2012

A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is racing east-south-east across Ohio and is rapidly approaching the West Virginia and Maryland borders… Look out Washington… The Weather will go down hill in a hurry this evening!

A mesoscale convective system is a complex of thunderstorms that becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms but smaller than extra-tropical cyclones and normally persists for several hours or more.

Visible satellite image shows towering cloud tops as MCS is feeding off of the boundary between the heat near the periphery of the upper level ridge of high pressure and the cooler area to the north.                 Satellite Image Courtesy: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

“RING OF FIRE” – Massive thunderstorm complexes form along the “ring” or periphery of the upper level ridge (currently very near Memphis Tennessee). Satellite Image Courtesy: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

“Bow Echo” signature on radar depicts damaging winds in excess of 70 mph are possible on leading edge of this MCS.  If storms survive the trip over the mountains, the Washington Region will be a prime target for wind damage with these storms as they race ESE at nearly 50 mph!

1 hour rainfall: Nearly 2″ of rain fell in these storms… much-needed rainfall and the temperatures will drop 20 degrees as these storms move through!

As these storms approach the mountains and it becomes more certain that they may survive the trip (I don’t see why they would dissipate given a strong jet stream aloft, the record heat outside, high dewpoints and very high CAPE values (convective available potential energy).  The “Spark” to ignite the CAPE (gasoline) is moving this way.  *You have been warned*  The National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center may issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Washington Region a bit later this afternoon.

 

5 Comments leave one →
  1. Jason permalink
    June 29, 2012 9:31 PM

    Just as predicted :-)

  2. Anonymous permalink
    June 30, 2012 9:59 AM

    Spot on! We watched this approach Germantown as we drove back from BWI last night.

    • Tim permalink*
      June 30, 2012 12:39 PM

      Thanks for checking out my blog, please pass my blog URL/link to your friends (DCstorms.com). The ingredients in the atmosphere that creates these MCSs are absolutely fascinating, despite the destruction that results from their fury.

  3. Bill Lindner permalink
    June 30, 2012 2:23 PM

    Right on target! It was fascinating to watch them develop and then roll across the country and right over us just as predicted. Thanks for the heads up from your blog that let us be well ahead of local media forecasters.

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