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Crazy Weekend or Crazy Models?

April 16, 2012

Heavy, wet snow, soaking rain and a tornado outbreak… all within the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend? Some models are ‘depicting’ a storm system that would be one for the record books… a scenario where heavy, wet, accumulating snow piles up 6″ in the mountains while a tornado outbreak hammers the coastal plain & 95 corridor.

Cut off low pressure systems are called “cut off” because they become detached from the Jet Stream

  • A “Cut-Off Low” produces rapidly rising air that cools.  Cold rain can change rapidly over to heavy, wet snow directly underneath their track.    
  • Spin in the atmosphere (wind shear) also occurs with these systems as they practically behave like a ‘spinning top‘ on your table, traveling slowly (dislodged from the Polar Jet Stream).

Let’s begin with the Snow:  Here is the latest European Forecast Model run for Sunday — 3 to 6″ of snow for parts of the mountains?

  • The prospects for a drought breaking, widespread soaking rain will increase ten fold if this system does indeed materialize.
  • Two to three inches of rain could easily fall over the drought stricken New England and Mid-Atlantic states.

Finally, I would normally not pay any attention to such an exciting forecast almost 7 days out if the NAO and AO were not tanking!

  • There is always the chance that the model data is garbage…. garbage in — garbage out— theory in computers… and we end up with a rain shower to settle the dust. LOL
  • One thing is for sure: if we have exciting weather, the local media will tell you about it Friday night… that’s why this is a weather blog — I share interesting possibilities early on so you can at least make a mental note.
One Comment leave one →
  1. Jason permalink
    April 18, 2012 6:45 AM

    Goodbye pollen!!!

    Oh wait, rain feeds trees and makes more pollen. Drat! :-)

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