Skip to content

Latest European Model Depicts Snowpocalypse Sunday

December 21, 2010

For those of  you who would like a repeat “Snowpocalypse” the European forecast model below is certainly advertising quite the storm Sunday into Monday.

 

Wow... If this track worked out... the DC Area would be digging out from 20 to 36" of snow Monday Morning, December 27th

 

If this particular run of the Euro is accurate… the Washington DC Metropolitan Area would be dealing with a classic blizzard ‘bombing’ out off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.  Go ahead… dream of a White Christmas… I’m dreaming of a White ‘Day After’ Christmas…  the latest Euro model above depicts a 972 millibar low (practically a hurricane) sitting off of Cape May.
Result: 2 to 3 FEET of snow… blizzard conditions and considerable blowing and drifting to follow.  Keep the snow blowers on standby just in case this ‘dream’ becomes a reality…. on the flip side the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) has snow showers falling  Sunday with 1 to 3″ of snow.

7 Comments leave one →
  1. Tim F permalink
    December 21, 2010 7:08 PM

    GFS and Euro are anything but a consensus right now!

    • Tim permalink*
      December 21, 2010 8:01 PM

      Agreed. That’s why this afternoon I mentioned the more northern track to the GFS ensembles which drops a few inches of snow across the Washington Area before sliding the system out of our area. Here’s to hoping the European Forecast Model is correct with its classic track and rapid cyclogenesis off the coast.

  2. Anonymous permalink
    December 21, 2010 9:03 PM

    Is one model typically more accurate? Why are they so different?

    • Tim permalink*
      December 21, 2010 10:37 PM

      Just as there are differences in performance among various types of cars, forecast models also have their differences. Computer models are only as good as the people who make them.

  3. Myke permalink
    December 22, 2010 11:40 AM

    How well did GFS and Euro models do in early predicitions of the February 2010 storms?

    • Tim permalink*
      December 22, 2010 1:16 PM

      The GFS and Euro last year were fairly consistent and had much more consensus than what we are seeing this year. Philadelphia’s National Weather Service forecaters have made an interesting observation that the Euro has not performed well this past fall with coastal systems.

  4. Tim F permalink
    December 22, 2010 6:44 PM

    GFS taking steps (leaps) towards Euro…interesting…

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: