The tropics are beginning to heat up. A tropical system may develop north of the Dominican Republic this weekend then threaten the United States East Coast as we head into the upcoming work week.
A cold front approaching the Mid-Atlantic from the west during the middle to later part of next week and an area of high pressure offshore may direct this system up along the east coast or just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. All interests along the US east coast will need to monitor the forecast as we head through the upcoming work week.
As of today, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the Washington Region under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday. A thunderstorm complex originating from the midwest may impact the DC Area during the pre-dawn or morning hours on Sunday, that is if they survive the trip over the Appalachian mountains. There may be a break in the action during the late morning and early afternoon hours. During the late afternoon and evening hours, wind shear will be increasing and a cold front will approach the region from the west. Thunderstorms may become super cells Sunday afternoon and evening, producing damaging winds, large destructive hail and tornadoes.
The following quote is from the National Weather Service technical forecast discussion posted today (Saturday, July 26th):
“THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD AND REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUN LATE AFTERNOON
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AFTER 8 PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES FROM DEPARTING MCS.
THE ATM [atmosphere] WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SUPERCELLS. CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 50KTS OF
SHEAR WILL LIKELY CAUSE DMG WINDS…LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPAWNING A COUPLE TORNADOES. THESE
SIGNALS ARE STRONGER THAN THE MID-ATLANTIC USUALLY WITNESSES.
PLEASE USE CAUTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAKE SURE YOU ARE
NEAR AN OUTLET TO RECEIVE UP TO DATE WEATHER INFORMATION.“
Residents should have their weather radios on standby and stay abreast to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service in case severe thunderstorms impact your area.
What a spectacular Spring it has been across the Mid-Atlantic with periods of low humidity and mild temperatures more similar to what you would find in New England during this time of year.
Below are four images taken from the latest climate forecast system (CFS) model specifically looking at the possible temperatures (departure from normal in Celsius) through June 20th. While there will be periods of heat and humidity, it looks as though there will also be periods with low humidity and cooler temperatures.
A cool front will approach the DC Region on Wednesday touching off scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front should clear the area by Thursday afternoon or evening allowing for high pressure to begin building into the region on Friday.
High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will rise into the middle to upper 70s. Sunday and Memorial Day will feature warmer temperatures with highs making into the 80s.
A strong cold front will pass slowly through the DC Area Thursday night through Friday’s rush hours creating ripe conditions for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
While the majority of the D.C. Region may pick up between two and three inches of rain, there may be spots that recieve closer to four inches before the system clears our area on Friday evening.
The upcoming weekend will feature a mix of clouds and some sunshine with high temperatures holding in the 60s to near 70 degrees.