A warm front will pass through the Washington Area this afternoon increasing instability in the atmosphere and placing our region in the “warm sector”. A cold front will then approach the region from the Shenandoah Valley during the mid to late afternoon hours accompanied by a line of severe thunderstorms as well as the potential for a few super cells. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the National Capital Area under an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms.
Timing the Thunderstorms: The following images are from the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model showing the potential time frame of when the storms may move through (*this model updates frequently and with any weather model, accuracy is not guaranteed*)
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the DC Area under a slight risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon. The threat of some storms becoming severe will continue both Monday and Tuesday afternoon as a cold front slowly approaches the east coast. Don’t get your hopes up (if you hate this humidity as much as I do)… the front will wash out and the “dog days of summer” will continue through the upcoming work week and next weekend.
Here’s a look at the 30 day precipitation (departure from average):
Rain will develop from south to north between 5 and 8 this evening. Rain will fall heavy at times between 11PM tonight and 7AM on Monday morning. A few rumbles of thunder are possible with a widespread one to two inches of rainfall expected. Some locations along the east facing slopes of the Blue Ridge could pick up three inches of rain. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Mid-Atlantic under a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon.
Enjoy Saturday… it will be the warmest weekend day we’ve had so far this year and for once, the sun will be shining.
Heavy rain will develop across our region Sunday night continuing through the Monday morning rush hour. One to two inches of rain is likely with some spots possibly picking up 3″ of rain. Mostly dry conditions return Tuesday through the remainder of the work week along with below average temperatures. Lows will drop into the 40s with highs near 60.
Today was the official first full day of Spring but the climate models suggest a slow start to the season with periods of cooler than average temperatures through about mid April. The Chesapeake Bay waters and ocean temperatures are running cooler than normal after a brutally cold winter. Add to the fact that our last average frost/freeze occurs around mid-April … patience would be wise before planting frost/freeze sensitive plants.