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Probability Increasing of El Nino Developing & It’s Possible Impact on Your Summer Weather

April 13, 2014

The probability continues to increase of El Nino conditions developing across the Equatorial Pacific this Summer or early Fall. Let’s take a look at the latest forecast models and what this may mean from a historical perspective for your summer forecast here in the National Capital Region.

Current Model Forecast Plume:  Majority Predict that El Nino will develop thi Summer or Fall

Current Forecast Model Plumes: Majority Predict that El Nino will develop this Summer or Fall

Probability (%) of El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral Conditions

Probability (%) of El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral Conditions – Good news for the ongoing drought in the Southwest (California) as an El Nino Winter would bring rain and heavy mountain snow.

Given the increasing probability of El Nino (warmer than average water temperatures developing across the equatorial Pacific) developing, I pulled previous years where the D.C. Area went from back to back La Nina winters (or neutral) and into El Nino conditions the following Fall/Winter.

This is by no means an authoritative forecast (low to medium confidence), but I was curious about temperature and precipitation anomalies and wanted to share them with you:

Possible Temperature Anomalies April through September (Confidence: Low-Medium)

Possible Temperature Anomalies April through September (Confidence: Low-Medium)

Possible Precipitation Anomalies April through September (Confidence: Low)

Possible Precipitation Anomalies April through September (Confidence: Low)

Could the Mid-Atlantic states (NY, PA, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA) be in for a hot, wet summer? We will soon find out.

Wet Snow & Sleet May Mix in With the Rain Tuesday Evening

April 13, 2014

After a spectacular weekend of dry, June-like weather across the Washington Area, the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) Model is hinting that the rain on Tuesday evening may end as a period of mixed precipitation across the higher elevations and possibly even in the Washington Area. Check out the latest model maps: If sleet and wet snow do mix in nothing would stick and precipitation would shut off too soon for any concern. Yes, even in mid-April, it can occasionally snow in D.C.

Sleet (Pink Colors) May Mix in with the Rain Tuesday Evening (7PM) According to the latest GFS

Sleet (pink colors) may mix in with the rain on Tuesday evening across the higher elevations.

Rain could even end as a period of wet flurries before ending late Tuesday Evening (GFS)

Rain could even end as a period of wet flurries late Tuesday Evening in the DC Area.

Latest GFS Snowfall Accumulation Forecast:
CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_72HR

Tuesday’s Temperature Roller Coaster Ride

April 13, 2014
Temperatures Tuesday 1 PM (GFS)

Temperatures Tuesday 1 PM (GFS- Global Forecast System)

Get ready for a quick decent back into Winter on Tuesday as a strong cold front slides through the Washington Area.  Showers are likely in the morning hours with scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon.

High temperatures on Tuesday may reach the lower to middle 70s out ahead of the cold front.

Temperatures at 7 PM Tuesday (GFS - Global Forecast System)

Temperatures at 7 PM Tuesday (GFS – Global Forecast System)

As the front passes through during the afternoon, temperatures will plummet 20 to 30 degrees.  By the dinner hour temperatures could be in the 30s and 40s with gusty northwest winds making it feel even colder. 

Temperatures on Wednesday Morning (GFS -Global Forecast System)

Temperatures on Wednesday Morning (GFS -Global Forecast System)

Low temperatures on Wednesday morning will dip into the lower to middle 30s.  Highs on Wednesday may not get out of the upper 40s depending upon how much cloud cover lingers over the region.  Temperatures will moderate slowly on Thursday and Friday with highs likely holding in the fifties to possibly near 60 degrees. 

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