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Timing the Tornado Threat Today

June 27, 2015

A warm front will pass through the Washington Area this afternoon increasing instability in the atmosphere and placing our region in the “warm sector”.  A cold front will then approach the region from the Shenandoah Valley during the mid to late afternoon hours accompanied by a line of severe thunderstorms as well as the potential for a few super cells.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the National Capital Area under an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms.  

Enhanced Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Today - SPC

Enhanced Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Today – Storm Prediction Center

Timing the Thunderstorms:  The following images are from the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model showing the potential time frame of when the storms may move through (*this model updates frequently and with any weather model, accuracy is not guaranteed*)

HRRR - 4 PM; Image courtesy Weatherbell.com

HRRR – 4 PM; Image courtesy Weatherbell.com

HRRR - 5 PM; Image courtesy Weatherbell.com

HRRR – 5 PM; Image courtesy Weatherbell.com

HRRR - 6 PM; Image courtesy Weatherbell.com

HRRR – 6 PM; Image courtesy Weatherbell.com (Wow – if this run of the HRRR is correct Fairfax and Stafford counties would be getting slammed)

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Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Today through Tuesday

June 14, 2015

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the DC Area under a slight risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon. The threat of some storms becoming severe will continue both Monday and Tuesday afternoon as a cold front slowly approaches the east coast.  Don’t get your hopes up (if you hate this humidity as much as I do)… the front will wash out and the “dog days of summer” will continue through the upcoming work week and next weekend. 

Severe Outlook Sunday Afternoon

Severe Outlook this Afternoon June 14th

Severe Outlook Monday Afternoon

Severe Outlook Monday Afternoon June 15

Severe Outlook Tuesday Afternoon

Severe Outlook Tuesday Afternoon, June 16

Here’s a look at the 30 day precipitation (departure from average):   

30 Day Rainfall (Departure from average)

30 Day Rainfall (Departure from average)

Heavy Rain Late This Evening; Severe Thunderstorms Possible Monday Afternoon

April 19, 2015
Rainfall Accumulation Potential through Monday PM - GFS; Image courtesy Weatherbell

Rainfall Accumulation Potential through Monday PM – GFS; Image courtesy Weatherbell

Rain will develop from south to north between 5 and 8 this evening. Rain will fall heavy at times between 11PM tonight and 7AM on Monday morning. A few rumbles of thunder are possible with a widespread one to two inches of rainfall expected. Some locations along the east facing slopes of the Blue Ridge could pick up three inches of rain.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Mid-Atlantic under a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

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Widespread 1 to 2″ of Rain Likely Sunday Night into Monday

April 17, 2015
Latest GFS Model shows widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2". Image courtesy: Weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Model shows widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2″. Image courtesy: Weatherbell.com

Enjoy Saturday… it will be the warmest weekend day we’ve had so far this year and for once, the sun will be shining.

Heavy rain will develop across our region Sunday night continuing through the Monday morning rush hour. One to two inches of rain is likely with some spots possibly picking up 3″ of rain. Mostly dry conditions return Tuesday through the remainder of the work week along with below average temperatures. Lows will drop into the 40s with highs near 60.

Climate Models Suggest a Slow Start to Spring

March 21, 2015
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Temperature departure from normal 21 through 26 of March; Image courtesy: Tropicaltidbits.com

Today was the official first full day of Spring but the climate models suggest a slow start to the season with periods of cooler than average temperatures through about mid April.  The Chesapeake Bay waters and ocean temperatures are running cooler than normal after a brutally cold winter.  Add to the fact that our last average frost/freeze occurs around mid-April … patience would be wise before planting frost/freeze sensitive plants. 

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