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Tornadoes Possible on Sunday

July 26, 2014
Mid Atlantic under a Slight Risk for Severe thunderstorms on Sunday; image courtesy NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

The Mid-Atlantic is under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday; image courtesy NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC). 

As of today, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the Washington Region under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday. A thunderstorm complex originating from the midwest may impact the DC Area during the pre-dawn or morning hours on Sunday, that is if they survive the trip over the Appalachian mountains. There may be a break in the action during the late morning and early afternoon hours.  During the late afternoon and evening hours, wind shear will be increasing and a cold front will approach the region from the west. Thunderstorms may become super cells Sunday afternoon and evening, producing damaging winds, large destructive hail and tornadoes.

Latest North American Model (NAM) showing helicity values (wind shear) increasing Sunday Afternoon and Evening.

North American Model (NAM) showing helicity values (wind shear – darker blue colors) increasing Sunday Afternoon and Evening. (Frame number three is 00z Monday, or Sunday around 6/7PM)

North American Model (NAM) showing EHI values (Energy Helicity Index) increasing Sunday afternoon and evening, especially across the southwestern suburbs.

North American Model (NAM) showing EHI values (Energy Helicity Index) increasing Sunday afternoon and evening, especially across the southwestern suburbs.

The following quote is from the National Weather Service technical forecast discussion posted today (Saturday, July 26th):

“THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD AND REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUN LATE AFTERNOON
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AFTER 8 PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES FROM DEPARTING MCS.

THE ATM [atmosphere] WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SUPERCELLS. CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 50KTS OF
SHEAR WILL LIKELY CAUSE DMG WINDS…LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPAWNING A COUPLE TORNADOES.
THESE
SIGNALS ARE STRONGER THAN THE MID-ATLANTIC USUALLY WITNESSES.
PLEASE USE CAUTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAKE SURE YOU ARE
NEAR AN OUTLET TO RECEIVE UP TO DATE WEATHER INFORMATION.

Residents should have their weather radios on standby and stay abreast to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service in case severe thunderstorms impact your area.

A Look Ahead at Temperatures through the Final Days of Spring

May 31, 2014

What a spectacular Spring it has been across the Mid-Atlantic with periods of low humidity and mild temperatures more similar to what you would find in New England during this time of year.

Below are four images taken from the latest climate forecast system (CFS) model specifically looking at the possible temperatures (departure from normal in Celsius) through June 20th. While there will be periods of heat and humidity, it looks as though there will also be periods with low humidity and cooler temperatures.

Temperature Departure from Normal May 31 - June

Temperature Departure from Normal (Celsius) May 31 – June 5th

Temperature Departure from Normal May 31 - June

Temperature Departure from Normal (Celsius) June 05 – June 10

Temperature Departure from Normal May 31 - June

Temperature Departure from Normal (Celsius) June 10 – June 15

Temperature Departure from Normal May 31 - June

Temperature Departure from Normal (Celsius) June 15 – June 20 (last day of Spring)

Spectacular Memorial Day Weekend on Tap for the Nation’s Capital

May 19, 2014
High pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic on Memorial Day providing dry, northwest flow.

High pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic on Memorial Day providing dry, northwest flow.

Highs on Memorial Day should reach the lower to middle 80s with low humidity.

Highs on Memorial Day should reach the lower to middle 80s with low humidity.

A cool front will approach the DC Region on Wednesday touching off scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front should clear the area by Thursday afternoon or evening allowing for high pressure to begin building into the region on Friday.

High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will rise into the middle to upper 70s.  Sunday and Memorial Day will feature warmer temperatures with highs making into the 80s. 

Heavy Rain Followed by Cool Weekend

May 14, 2014
Two to Four inches of Rain may fall across parts of the DC Area through Friday

Two to Four inches of Rain may fall across parts of the DC Area through Friday

A strong cold front will pass slowly through the DC Area Thursday night through Friday’s rush hours creating ripe conditions for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

While the majority of the D.C. Region may pick up between two and three inches of rain, there may be spots that recieve closer to four inches before the system clears our area on Friday evening.

The upcoming weekend will feature a mix of clouds and some sunshine with high temperatures holding in the 60s to near 70 degrees.

Hot Weather Ahead & a Look at Mother’s Day

May 3, 2014

The upcoming work week will feature seasonal temperatures through Thursday with lows generally in the 50s and highs reaching the lower to middle 70s.  There may even be several periods of showers in the DC Region as cooler air over New England clashes with warmer air over the Carolinas.

A warm front may pass through the DC Area on Thursday setting up the stage for well above normal temperatures on Friday!  As a ridge of high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures may reach the middle to upper 80s on Friday afternoon!

A ridge of high pressure will develop aloft (in the upper levels of the atmosphere) on Friday.

A ridge of high pressure will develop aloft (in the upper levels of the atmosphere) on Friday.

High Temperatures on Friday may sizzle into the upper 80s!

High Temperatures on Friday may rise into the middle to upper 80s! If a down-sloping, westerly wind develops during the afternoon, temperatures could make it into the lower 90s.

Mothers Day Weekend:
The forecast becomes tricky this far out, but the general consensus is that the next frontal boundary may approach the Washington Region from the Midwest on Mother’s Day weekend.

Depending upon exactly when the front passes through, scattered thunderstorms are possible on Mother’s Day with temperatures in the 70s.

Global Forecast System Ensemble Model forecast for precipitation May 11th (Mother's Day)

Global Forecast System (GFS) Ensemble Model forecast for precipitation May 11th (Mother’s Day)

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